Bears' Caleb Williams grades out as average despite four interceptions against Tampa Bay
A Windy City Gridiron film review grades Caleb Williams' four-interception win over Tampa Bay as average. The Bears host the Saints after their bye.
Caleb Williams threw four interceptions against Tampa Bay, but a play-by-play film review argues that one bad box score doesn't make a bad quarterback. In his weekly grading at Windy City Gridiron, part of SB Nation, Gary Baugher Jr. gave Williams a game score of 0.10 for the 27-24 Sunday night win over the Buccaneers. That works out to an average outing: 1.10 in the first half and -1.00 in the second.
Williams went 22 of 37 for 279 yards and two touchdowns, with a 61.5 passer rating. Athlon Sports and Quartz both noted that the four picks were a career high. Chicago turned the ball over five times and still won on Cairo Santos' 38-yard field goal as time expired. Baugher points out that Williams had thrown one interception in 158 attempts this season before Sunday.
The film tells a more mixed story than the stat line. Baugher charted only one off-target aimed throw through the middle of the second quarter, and Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland dropped three catchable balls in that stretch. One of Odunze's drops could have made it 21-3. Baugher puts the first interception squarely on Williams. After a Zavion Thomas personal foul backed the Bears up, Williams forced a post route into Cover 3, and Tykee Smith cut it off at the goal line. "It was a poor decision, plain and simple," Baugher wrote. Two more came on throwaways under A-gap pressure that stayed in bounds, and both were caught by cornerback Zyon McCollum. The fourth came off a deflection on a Luther Burden III comeback route, and Baugher did not grade it as turnover-worthy.
The bigger worry was the third quarter. Tampa Bay blitzed heavily, Williams' footwork got choppy, and four of six throws in one stretch graded below average or worse. His on-target rate fell to 78.8 percent, against a season average of 85.9. He was 10 of 16 on target past 10 yards and 16 of 17 underneath. He recovered in the fourth quarter, going 6 of 7 for 72 yards. That included the 38-yard throw to a wide-open Loveland that set up Santos. Baugher also notes that Williams passed 9,000 career yards faster than any quarterback in franchise history.
What it means for the Saints
The win was Chicago's fourth straight and put the Bears at 7-2 going into the bye. The streak includes a 34-17 win at Seattle and a 30-24 win over New England. Chicago's two losses were a 9-3 home game against Minnesota and a 31-7 defeat at Green Bay. The Bears host New Orleans on Sunday, November 22, on Fox. The Saints game will be a direct comparison between Williams and Tyler Shough, another quarterback Baugher grades every week.
Across the seven venues on this site's board, Chicago is a heavy favorite. Novig has the Bears at -525, while DraftKings has the best price at -485. On the other side, Novig lists the Saints at +413 and FanDuel is highest at +430. That's a 40-cent spread between venues on the favorite and 17 cents on the underdog, with sportsbook hold between 4.2 and 4.6 percent. DraftKings has Chicago at -9.5 on the spread at -110. The total is between 48.5 and 49.5. Novig's under at 49.5 is a big outlier: it sits at -300, while bet365 offers the same number at -115.
The Bears are favored by more than nine points. Ball security under pressure is the clearest thing for Williams to fix during the bye.