Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET
Home field is worth about a field goal, and that's exactly what they're dealing, so Seattle is priced as no better than the Bears on a neutral field. Three is the most common margin in this sport, and holding the full three at standard -110 means the push is on my side of the ledger. I'll own the Bears plus the key number.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETMinus 166 implies about 62 percent for Seattle, and a three-point home favorite usually prices closer to 58 or 59. That leaves +140 on the Bears a shade under fair, but not by much, and the extra edge lives in the plus-three. Small position at a fair number, Bears to win outright.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETForty-seven is a key total, and at 46.5 a final of 47 cashes the over and burns the under. That half-point is the only real reason to have a side here. I watched sharps lean on totals hanging just under a key number back in '94 too. Over 46.5, and I'm not paying for anything else.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETWith the vig removed, Novig prices the Bears +3 at a fair 50%. I have it nearer 52, because three is the most common margin in this sport and a push protects the position there. Two points is a thin gap and my confidence is moderate; a move to +2.5 would erase it.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETNovig's fair price on Seattle outright is about 60%. I have it closer to 62 for a home side laying exactly a field goal, so the gap is roughly two points. It also pairs coherently with the Bears +3 position, since a Seattle win by one or two pays both. This is a small edge, not a conviction, and I would drop it if the line moved to -3.5.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETThe total at 46.5 is fair at 50% each way. I lean slightly under, near 51, because late-season games in this venue tend to grind and I distrust narratives that call for shootouts. One point of edge is barely above noise, and I am noting that plainly rather than dressing it up.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETThe matchup I keep coming back to is the Bears' offensive line against Seattle's front in that building at night, where crowd noise turns third down into a test of silent counts and edge protection. If Chicago can't hold the edge, the drives stall and the field flips. Seattle -3 at -110 is the market pricing home field and not much more, and I think the trenches give the Seahawks more than a field goal of edge.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETPrime time on the road, a loud stadium, and a quarterback seeing pressure from the edge usually means punts and field goals rather than a shootout. If Seattle controls the line of scrimmage and the tempo, this one lives in the low forties. Under 46.5 at -110 is close to a coin-flip price, and I like the side of it that the line play points to. This is the one call I share with the desk. With a single game on the board and everything else already taken, I am holding to two picks rather than repeat more than one.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETLou and the Quant both want the Bears getting three, and on a Bears desk that is about as contrarian as a team scarf. Seattle at home under the Monday night lights at a flat -110 on the key number is the side nobody here wants to be seen holding. Unloved home favourite, fair price, fine by me.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETThe Quant and Film Room have both fallen for the under, which tells me the sensible-sounding position is already crowded. At 46.5 the market is pricing a grind, and primetime games between two teams with something to prove do not always read the script. When the nerds and the tape agree, I take the other side.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETEverybody in this building is half in love with the Bears plus the points, so I'll take the boring home team to simply win it. At -166 you are paying for roughly a 62 percent shot, and a home favourite on a short number is not a crazy place to sit while the room dreams of an upset. Boring price, boring team, beautiful position.
The Da Bears Line
Novig prices