Bears lead crowded NFC North as Cousins trade gives the Vikings a new look
At 7-2, the Bears lead a division where all four teams have winning records. ESPN's FPI gives Chicago the best odds to win the NFC North.
The Chicago Bears are 7-2 and lead the NFL's most crowded division. Minnesota's trade for Kirk Cousins hasn't changed the view that Chicago is the team to beat. In a roundtable published by ESPN, the outlet's four NFC North reporters weighed whether Cousins puts the Vikings in control. All four said no. Three of the four also said the Bears deserve to be division favorites.
The race is about as tight as it gets. Detroit and Minnesota are both 6-2, and Green Bay is 6-3. According to ESPN Research, the four teams have the best combined record through nine weeks of any division since the league realigned in 2002. After the Packers routed New England, Matt LaFleur summed up the standings bluntly: "We're in last place in our division right now." ESPN's Football Power Index gives Chicago a 35.1% chance to win the division, ahead of Minnesota at 29.7%, Detroit at 24.7% and Green Bay at 10.5%.
The Vikings' case starts with a defense that ESPN ranks second in the league. Their offense ranks near the bottom in efficiency, though, and the panel's Vikings and Lions writers both said a 38-year-old Cousins won't fix that alone. Minnesota's next two games are at Lambeau Field and against San Francisco in Mexico City.
The main concern about Chicago is the tiebreakers. Both of the Bears' losses came in the division: a 9-3 home loss to Minnesota and a 31-7 loss at Green Bay in a game Caleb Williams missed. They have not played Detroit yet, and their last three games are Green Bay and Detroit at Soldier Field followed by a trip to Minnesota. Courtney Cronin, who covers the Bears for ESPN, pointed to the arrival of defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. She said he has let the defense win with a standard four-man rush instead of blitzing as often as it did before Week 8. She also noted the offense averages 30.7 points per game with Williams under center. Williams threw four interceptions against Tampa Bay, but the panel mostly treated that game as an outlier.
What it means for the Saints
Chicago has won four straight: 31-23 at Atlanta, 30-24 over New England, 34-17 at Seattle and 27-24 over Tampa Bay. Since the shutout-level loss at Green Bay, the offense has scored at least 27 points every week. Next up is New Orleans at home on Sunday, November 22, on Fox, after the Bears' bye. Cronin called the stretch after the bye favorable. The Saints game is a chance for the Bears to protect their lead before the division games start to pile up.
The board has the Bears as heavy favorites. Chicago is -488 on Novig, and the best price elsewhere is -485 at DraftKings. New Orleans is +426 on Novig and +430 at FanDuel, the best of the seven venues. That puts the moneyline prices within a few cents of each other. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 4.2% to 4.6%. The spread is Bears -9.5. Novig prices Chicago at -115, while DraftKings has the best price at -110. New Orleans is -104 at +9.5 on Novig. The total ranges from 48.5 to 49.5. DraftKings has the over at 48.5 for -110, and bet365 has the under at 49.5 for -115.
A win would put the Bears at 8-2. That would extend their lead before the Packers, Lions and Vikings decide the division in the final weeks. More on the season is on the Bears team page.