Chicago Bears' Caleb Williams enters MVP race as Buccaneers come to Soldier Field

Caleb Williams is now a real part of the NFL MVP conversation, and the Chicago Bears are winning because of the version of him they have seen since he came back. Chicago's 34-17 win at Seattle on Monday night followed a Week 7 win over New England, which made the Bears the first team in franchise history to beat the Super Bowl champion and the runner-up in back-to-back games. ESPN's Courtney Cronin reports that the result moved the Bears to the top of the NFC title market and put Williams fourth in the MVP odds at +500 on DraftKings, trailing Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow.

The argument for Williams is less about highlight plays and more about control. He missed Weeks 3 through 5 with a hamstring injury. Since he returned, the Bears have scored at least 30 points in all three games and have not trailed in any of them. In Seattle he threw for 247 yards, the first 200-yard passing game anyone had managed against that defense this season. He ranks second in the league in completion rate at 70.9 percent, fifth in yards per attempt at 8.0 and third in QBR. ESPN's numbers on clean pockets stand out most. Williams has completed 96 of 112 throws without pressure and has not thrown an interception on any of them. Over the last three games he is 63 of 70 in those situations.

Williams said the change comes from a phrase he picked up at USC. "When you're hesitant, bad things happen," he told ESPN. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor and head coach Ben Johnson also gave him more pre-snap responsibility against Seattle, including more run checks than usual. Tight end Colston Loveland has 20 catches for 199 yards and two touchdowns since Week 6. In the first five games he had 13 catches for 110 yards.

The missed games are the weak point in his case. Sports Illustrated noted that the time away has cut into his raw totals. SI also pointed out that the Bears have won all four games Williams has started and finished.

What it means for Sunday against Tampa Bay

The Bears (6-2) host the Buccaneers Sunday night on NBC, looking for a fourth straight win. The season line tells the story. Chicago scored 59 at Carolina in Week 1, then managed three points in the Week 2 loss to Minnesota in which Williams got hurt. The Bears went 2-1 without him, including a 31-7 loss at Green Bay, and have averaged nearly 32 points a game since he came back. Tampa Bay is the toughest test of that run so far. ESPN has the Buccaneers allowing 18.9 points per game, fifth in the league, and Windy City Gridiron reports they come in on a two-game winning streak. Tampa Bay will be without edge rusher YaYa Diaby (knee), while left tackle Tristan Wirfs is off the injury report. For Chicago, running back Kyle Monangai and cornerbacks Malik Muhammad and Tyrique Stevenson are questionable. Left tackle Theo Benedet and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are cleared.

On this site's board, which tracks 11 venues, the Bears are favored at -257 on Novig. The best moneyline price anywhere is -250 at theScore Bet, so the venues are close. Tampa Bay is +245 on Novig. Novig has Chicago at -6.5 for +108, while theScore Bet lists the Bears at -6 for -105. The total sits at 47.5 on Novig, with the over at -106 and the under at -100. DraftKings has the over at -105, and theScore Bet has the total at 48.5. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.1 to 4.8 percent across the markets.