Chicago Bears defense carries 7-2 team through five-turnover win as Simmons changes the front
Jeffery Simmons has changed how the Chicago Bears defense works, and it carried the 7-2 Bears past Tampa Bay before a home game against New Orleans.
The Chicago Bears won on Sunday night with almost no help from their offense. That result is the best argument yet that this defense has changed since Jeffery Simmons arrived. In the 27-24 win over Tampa Bay at Soldier Field, Chicago scored touchdowns on its first two drives. After that, by Windy City Gridiron's count, the offense managed 6 points over its next 11 possessions. It turned the ball over five times and went three-and-out three times. The defense held anyway, allowing the Buccaneers just two third-down conversions in 12 tries.
Bill Zimmerman of Windy City Gridiron says the reason is the trade-deadline move for Simmons. Before the deal, he writes, Chicago's defensive line had 11 sacks in six games. It has seven in the two games since. Over the same stretch, the blitz rate dropped from about 40 percent to roughly 15. Zimmerman summed it up as "More pressure, less blitzing." Under coordinator Dennis Allen, the Bears used to manufacture pressure with stunts and extra rushers. Now they can rush four and still win up front. Chicago Bears On SI reports that Simmons himself has 10 tackles, two sacks and two pass deflections in his first two games with Chicago.
The offense's collapse came mostly through Caleb Williams. As WGN Chicago reported, he threw four interceptions after completing six of eight first-quarter passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns. In past seasons, a night like that would usually have meant a loss. This time Chicago won.
There are still concerns. General manager Ryan Poles did not add a cornerback at the deadline. Zimmerman notes that the secondary will face real tests against receiving groups like those in Detroit and Green Bay. The bet in Chicago is that a four-man rush that forces quick, rushed throws can cover for that weakness.
What it means for Sunday against New Orleans
The Bears are 7-2 and have won four straight since the 31-7 loss at Green Bay. They have scored 30, 34 and 27 points in three of those games. On the season they have scored 241 points and allowed 184, about 26.8 points scored and 20.4 allowed per game. The scoring defense numbers lag the eye test because of the 37 points allowed at Carolina in the opener and the 31 allowed in Green Bay. The two games with Simmons are a small sample, and Sunday's home game against the Saints on Fox adds a third.
The market expects Chicago to win comfortably. On this site's board, which tracks seven venues, the Bears are favored at -545 on Novig. The best moneyline price anywhere is DraftKings at -485. New Orleans is +441 on Novig. The spread sits at Chicago -9.5: Novig prices the Bears side at -115 and DraftKings at -110, and the Saints are -104 at +9.5 on Novig. The total ranges from 48.5, the best Over price at DraftKings at -110, to 49.5, the best Under at bet365 at -115. Sportsbook hold runs between 4.2 and 5.0 percent across the markets.
As a favorite, Chicago returns $18.35 per $100 on Novig versus $20.62 at DraftKings, a gap of about $2.27 per $100. Laying more than nine points means the Bears will probably need a cleaner game from their offense than they got on Sunday night.