Novig prices
Bears' Burden and Odunze split the work by half as Chicago hosts Tampa Bay
Luther Burden III sets the early tone and Rome Odunze closes for the 6-2 Bears, who are favored at home against Tampa Bay on Sunday night.
The Chicago Bears still may not have a clear No. 1 receiver. So far, they haven't needed one. Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze have each taken on a different job in Ben Johnson's offense, according to a breakdown by Khari Thompson of SB Nation, syndicated on Yahoo Sports. Burden handles the early work and Odunze takes over late.
The numbers back that up. Burden has 42 catches for 547 yards and three touchdowns, and 400 of those yards have come before halftime. That includes a 130-yard first half in the win over New England. Thompson argues that Johnson is deliberately getting his most explosive player the ball early, and that this lines up with Chicago's fast starts. With running back Kyle Monangai out of the lineup, Burden's ability to turn short throws into first downs has also helped prop up a short-yardage game that needed it.
Odunze has 28 catches for 468 yards, split evenly between halves for the season. Lately, though, his production has shifted toward the fourth quarter as defenses start rolling coverage toward Burden. He had three catches for 42 yards in the fourth quarter against the Patriots, including a tough third-down grab. He has also caught every one of Caleb Williams' third-down touchdown passes this season. Both receivers are on a pace that could put them near 1,000 yards. Add tight end Colston Loveland and Kalif Raymond, who has been a surprise contributor, and the Bears have a receiver for every situation. SB Nation describes the passing game as "getting back on track" after three quiet weeks with backup quarterbacks. That is also a quiet endorsement of the front office's decision to trade DJ Moore and hand the room to its young receivers.
What it means against Tampa Bay
Chicago is 6-2 and has won three straight, beating Atlanta 31-23 and New England 30-24 and then winning 34-17 at Seattle. The Bears have averaged nearly 32 points over that run and have outscored opponents 214-160 on the season. Both losses came against division opponents: a 9-3 home loss to Minnesota and a 31-7 loss at Green Bay. The Buccaneers come to Soldier Field for Sunday night's game on NBC.
The Bears are clear favorites on this site's board, which tracks 11 venues. Novig prices Chicago at -239 on the moneyline and Tampa Bay at +233, which works out to roughly a 70 percent chance that the Bears win. On the spread, Novig lists Chicago -6.5 at +108 and the Buccaneers +6.5 at -113. The best Bears spread price anywhere is a half-point shorter, -5.5 at -121 at bet365. The total sits at 47.5 on Novig, with the over at -104 and the under at even money. The sportsbooks' built-in margins run from 2.4 to 5.0 percent across the markets, so prices for the same game differ noticeably from one venue to the next.
The receiver split is worth watching here. If Johnson again gets Burden involved early, Chicago could build the kind of lead the spread assumes. If Tampa Bay keeps the game close into the fourth quarter, the Bears have recently relied on Odunze in that spot.