Novig prices
Bears host run-heavy Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football after rout of Seattle
The 6-2 Bears host a 3-5 Tampa Bay team that has run its way to two straight wins, with Chicago favored by about a touchdown at Soldier Field.
The Chicago Bears return to Soldier Field for Sunday Night Football on NBC as the most talked-about team in the league. Last week's 34-17 win at Seattle moved them to 6-2, and the Buccaneers team coming to town has stopped looking like an easy out. Tampa Bay is 3-5 but has won two straight. According to CBS Sports, the Bucs ran for 582 yards over those two games and outscored Carolina and Atlanta by a combined 59-13 while getting almost nothing from the passing game.
The 16-0 win over Atlanta came in bad weather, and Tampa Bay won it without completing a pass, CBS Sports reported. Baker Mayfield is working back from a thumb injury, and the Bucs have their bye next week. CBS also noted that Tampa Bay allows 285.9 yards per game, third fewest in the NFL, and leads the league in run defense. That makes Sunday a direct test of D'Andre Swift and a Chicago offense that leans on its ground game.
Chicago's change since the last home game is up front on defense. General manager Ryan Poles traded for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, and CBS wrote that Simmons was everywhere in the win over Seattle. Tampa Bay has given up 23 sacks, tied for second most in the league. Mayfield told reporters the Bucs will adjust their protections to account for him, calling Simmons "a game wrecker" in comments reported by Athlon Sports. CBS also listed Chicago's run defense as the fourth best in the league, which puts it up against Tampa Bay's only working formula.
What it means for Sunday night
The Bears have won five of their last six games, and their only losses came in a 9-3 home defeat to Minnesota and a 31-7 loss at Green Bay. They have scored 30 or more points in each of their last three games, 95 in total, and every one of those games finished above 47.5 combined points. Over the season they are averaging 26.8 points and allowing 20.0, and they are 3-1 at home.
Across the 11 venues on this site's board, Chicago is favored. Novig has the Bears at -239 on the moneyline and Tampa Bay at +233, which works out to about a 70 percent chance of a Chicago win. That is close to the 72 cents a Bears win traded at on Kalshi, according to CBS. On the spread, Novig lists Chicago -6.5 at +111 and Tampa Bay +6.5 at -113. The strongest Bears number anywhere is bet365's -5.5 at -121, which gives up a point in exchange for a shorter price. Bleacher Nation reported most major books at Bears -6, so the venues sit within a point of each other. The sportsbooks' margins run from 2.4 to 5.0 percent on the spread.
The total is 47.5. Novig prices the over at -106 and the under at +104, close to an even split. The total will come down to whether the Bucs can keep the clock running with their ground game, and whether Simmons and the Chicago front can push Mayfield into passing on a sore thumb.