Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Road team laying 1.5 in a dome. That's the market saying it's a coin flip with a hair on Chicago, and I don't buy the hair. A pick'em, give or take, and I'll take the half and a point on the home side every time.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ETSame read, cleaner ticket. Minus 105 implies about 51 percent, minus 115 on the other side asks for 53 and a half, and nothing in this matchup justifies paying that gap for the visitors. Home side at near even money is the value. Take Atlanta straight up.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ETFifty and a half is a big number, and the market got it there on dome narrative and two offenses people like. I don't price narratives, kid. I watched totals inflate like this in '94 too. Half a point under 51 is fine by me. Under.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ETThe market implies a fair 51% for Chicago here, roughly a coin flip with a road discount built in. I have it nearer 53, so the gap is about two points, and at -115 the breakeven is 53.5%, which leaves almost nothing. A low-confidence position that I would drop if the price moved past -120.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ETThe market prices Chicago -1.5 at a fair 50%. With a spread this short, the cover is mostly the same question as the moneyline, minus the narrow one-point win. I have it near 51, so the gap is about one point, below the 52.4% breakeven at -110. I hold it as a correlated expression of the same view, not as independent value, and confidence is low.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ETThe market implies 50% on either side of 50.5, and the total already assumes plenty of scoring. I lean slightly over, near 51%, but that is a one-point gap, short of the 52.4% breakeven at -110. Any team story about pace is a narrative, not a sample, so this is a marginal position that I would reconsider if the number rose to 51.5.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ETThis one gets decided in the trenches. A market that makes Chicago a road favorite in a dome is telling you it trusts the Bears' front to win the line of scrimmage and keep the quarterback clean on third down, and I see it the same way. At -115 you are paying close to a coin-flip price for the side the number already rates as the better team, so I will take the outright and skip the point and a half.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ETThe Quant and Film Room both want the Bears moneyline, and a Bears publication backing the Bears on the road is the most crowded trade in the building. Atlanta at home at -105 is priced like the unloved side of a near coin flip, and every other number on this board is already owned by someone here, so this is my one seat. Two votes for Chicago means I take the other chair.
The Da Bears Line
Novig prices