Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET
Full three at a flat -110 is the best number on the board, kid. Three is the most common margin in this sport, and when you can hold the key number without paying extra for it, you take it. Patriots +3, position on.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ETPlus 130 implies about 43 and a half percent. A three-point dog fairly sits a shade under that, so this isn't a steal, just close to fair. It pairs with the +3, and if the dog's live at three I want a small piece of the outright too. Patriots moneyline, eyes open.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ETFifty and a half is a big number for a short-week night game, and it's hanging a half-point under 51. Short prep tends to mean simpler offenses, and I'd rather sell a high total than chase one. Under 50.5.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ETNovig's fair price on the Bears moneyline implies roughly 58%. A three-point home favorite in my rough model wins nearer 61%, so the gap is about three points, which is modest but positive. Moderate confidence; a move in the closing number toward a pick'em would change my mind.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ETThe spread is priced as a coin flip at 50%, but three is the most common margin in this sport and a meaningful share of outcomes land exactly there as a push. Excluding pushes, I have the Patriots covering nearer 52%, a two-point edge, and it pairs coherently with the moneyline view since Bears wins by one or two satisfy both. Low to moderate confidence; this one repeats a desk position, and a hook to 3.5 would remove the reason to hold it.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ETNovig implies 50% on the over at 50.5. I lean slightly toward points, nearer 52%, though I hold no specific data that justifies more than a small edge and the narrative of a shootout is just a narrative. Low confidence; this is the thinnest of the three and I would step aside if the total had moved up through the week.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ETThis one gets decided in the trenches on a short week. A Thursday night game favors the team sleeping in its own bed, and Chicago's front gets to hold the line of scrimmage at Soldier Field with a crowd making the Patriots' cadence work for every snap. Minus 3 sits right on the key number, and I think the home edge in the trenches is worth more than a field goal.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ETI'm on the same side as The Quant here, and the football case supports it. If Chicago controls the line of scrimmage and wins on third down, it wins this game, and -155 prices them at roughly 61 percent, which I think undersells the home edge on a short week. The only open spot on the board was the Bears side of the spread, so I'm pairing it with the moneyline rather than adding a third position that just repeats the desk again.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ETThe desk has already claimed every number on this board, so I'm taking one position and passing on the rest. Most of the room has piled onto the Bears in primetime or settled for the safe Patriots +3, and plus 130 says the market sees New England as an afterthought on the road. If they're priced as the team nobody wants, I'll take the outright win at a plus price over hiding behind the hook. Unloved visitor, plus money, prime time: the crowd can keep the favourite.
The Da Bears Line
Novig prices